JuN 2026
May 2026
May 2026
Mid-year Musings
Recovery or Repricing
Recovery or Repricing
Three markets. One common message. As valuations stretch and margins of safety narrow, this edition explores where investors should exercise caution—and where opportunities may still remain.
Three markets. One common message. As valuations stretch and margins of safety narrow, this edition explores where investors should exercise caution—and where opportunities may still remain.
Three markets. One common message. As valuations stretch and margins of safety narrow, this edition explores where investors should exercise caution—and where opportunities may still remain.
15 min read
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
US: A bubble on every lens
Market cap/GDP >220%, P/E ~30x, top-10 weight >40% — and the 'superior earnings' defence does not survive the data. Ben Graham math implies 12–80% downside.
The BEER ratio, India’s most reliable bond-equity valuation barometer, has remained above its 1.5x fair value threshold for over 20 consecutive months of fading earnings and valuation momentum. Nifty 50 earnings yield at 4.0–4.2% is struggling to justify itself against AA-rated corporate bonds yielding 8.5–9.5%.
India: moderated, not immune
Nifty at 24–25x (like-for-like) is cheaper than 2024 but still 10–30% above long-run norms — squarely in the historical bear-trigger band. FY26 EPS growth ~5%.
India: moderated, not immune
Nifty at 24–25x (like-for-like) is cheaper than 2024 but still 10–30% above long-run norms — squarely in the historical bear-trigger band. FY26 EPS growth ~5%.
Gold: not yet a golden winter
The recent crash looks like consolidation, not a top. The gold-silver ratio stays bullish below 80; the buy signal has not yet rung. Mega-IPOs may fuel one last leap.
Gold: not yet a golden winter
The recent crash looks like consolidation, not a top. The gold-silver ratio stays bullish below 80; the buy signal has not yet rung. Mega-IPOs may fuel one last leap.
Read the Full Edition
Read the Full Edition
Browse the complete market intelligence brief.
Never miss an insight
Subscribe to Amplify and get our latest Deep Dives every week.
Never miss an insight
Subscribe to Insights and get our latest Amplify every month.
