Mid-year Musings
Recovery or Repricing
Recovery or Repricing
Three markets. One common message. As valuations stretch and margins of safety narrow, this edition explores where investors should exercise caution—and where opportunities may still remain.
Three markets. One common message. As valuations stretch and margins of safety narrow, this edition explores where investors should exercise caution—and where opportunities may still remain.
Three markets. One common message. As valuations stretch and margins of safety narrow, this edition explores where investors should exercise caution—and where opportunities may still remain.
Jun 2026
15 min read
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
01
US: A Bubble On Every Lens
Market cap/GDP >220%, P/E ~30x, top-10 weight >40% — and the 'superior earnings' defence does not survive the data. Ben Graham math implies 12–80% downside.
US: A Bubble On Every Lens
Market cap/GDP >220%, P/E ~30x, top-10 weight >40% — and the 'superior earnings' defence does not survive the data. Ben Graham math implies 12–80% downside.
02
India: Moderated, Not Immune
Nifty at 24–25x (like-for-like) is cheaper than 2024 but still 10–30% above long-run norms — squarely in the historical bear-trigger band. FY26 EPS growth ~5%.
India: Moderated, Not Immune
Nifty at 24–25x (like-for-like) is cheaper than 2024 but still 10–30% above long-run norms — squarely in the historical bear-trigger band. FY26 EPS growth ~5%.
03
Gold: Not Yet A Golden Winter
The recent crash looks like consolidation, not a top. The gold-silver ratio stays bullish below 80; the buy signal has not yet rung. Mega-IPOs may fuel one last leap.
Gold: Not Yet A Golden Winter
The recent crash looks like consolidation, not a top. The gold-silver ratio stays bullish below 80; the buy signal has not yet rung. Mega-IPOs may fuel one last leap.
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