Recovery or Repricing?
Recovery or Repricing?
Recovery or Repricing?
Markets may be celebrating a recovery, but the macro tells a different story. This edition examines why oil, currency and global liquidity could force a broader repricing of expectations.
Markets may be celebrating a recovery, but the macro tells a different story. This edition examines why oil, currency and global liquidity could force a broader repricing of expectations.
Markets may be celebrating a recovery, but the macro tells a different story. This edition examines why oil, currency and global liquidity could force a broader repricing of expectations.
May 2026
12 min read
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
01
Oil Assumption Wrong
April's rally rested on crude normalising to $80. Brent at $100–110 says otherwise.
Oil Assumption Wrong
April's rally rested on crude normalising to $80. Brent at $100–110 says otherwise.
02
Margin Compression Cycle
200–300 bps EBITDA impact is the base case. Q4FY26 earnings will begin surfacing this.
Margin Compression Cycle
200–300 bps EBITDA impact is the base case. Q4FY26 earnings will begin surfacing this.
03
Contrarian India
MSCI EM weight at historical lows; global AI concentration at dot-com extremes.
Contrarian India
MSCI EM weight at historical lows; global AI concentration at dot-com extremes.
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